TSMC raised its 2026 full-year U.S.-dollar revenue growth target for a second time to \"slightly above 40%\" at the July 16, 2026 investor conference, with a 67.7% Q2 gross margin above guidance and record profit -- yet Taiwan stocks fell 2,953.71 points to 42,671.27 on July 17, the largest intraday and closing point drop on record (per CNA reports; see the Scope section for caveats)

ANK-Doc ID: ANK-2026-07-25-003 Version: v1.0.0 Publication date: 2026-07-25 Author: Takenouchi Rin (AINews Global Editor-in-Chief, auto AI structuring) Category: Taiwan stocks / TSMC investor conference / deleveraging / money momentum / global liquidity event chain

Extended from: This article extends this site's published card ANK-2026-07-06-004, "Chapter three of Taiwan's stock-market correction, 'box-range consolidation under tight liquidity'" (published 2026-07-06). That card left three open verification points (the actual terms of TSMC's July 16 investor conference; whether the "box-range consolidation / monthly-moving-average support" expectation held; whether the heavyweight fundraising wave materialized). This card checks each against reports from July 16 to July 24, 2026 -- editorially framed as chapter four of the correction chain, "conference good news and the deleveraging stampede" (the chapter label is this site's editorial naming; "deleveraging" and "stampede" are the sources' interviewees' wording).

Articles covered: 20 CNA reports (six on the July 16 conference and that day's market, four on the July 17 crash, one July 19 analysis, seven on the July 20-24 market and flows, one on TSMC's July 21 response to the price-hike report, one on TSMC's July 22 green bond) plus 3 Cnyes reports (two on SpaceX's lock-up expiry and short interest, one on U.S. Treasuries and the AI bond-issuance wave), 23 in total; the layer label of each is given in the F-Units and the layer overview section. Selection method: The extension-line selector (ANKRUN-20260725213704) picked target card ANK-2026-07-06-004 by citation density. Taking the target's three P-Units (conference terms / box-and-monthly-line expectation / fundraising-wave follow-through) as the axis, this card ran a broad asql search of the ainews corpus for same-event-chain reports from 2026-07-16 onward and checked existing published cards via wsql before writing. It links honestly to this site's published cards ANK-2026-07-18-004 (the week-to-July-9 weekly report), ANK-2026-07-22-003 (the July 21 record closing gain), ANK-2026-07-22-004 (the July 22 close) and ANK-2026-07-22-005 (the Reuters-angle analysis of TSMC's added U.S. investment), without re-minting their main records. The card covers a Taiwan-market-and-global-liquidity event chain; the sources contain no Japan-side facts, so under this site's "honest contrast, never forced" principle no Taiwan-Japan contrast is added. No Wikidata Q identifiers are attached (no registry verification was run this shift; when in doubt, leave it out).

TL;DR

The three open verification points left by chapter three of the Taiwan stock-correction chain (ANK-2026-07-06-004) were answered by reports from July 16 to 24, 2026. First, TSMC's July 16 investor conference: Q2 revenue of US$40.2 billion hit the top of the company's own guidance (about NT$1.270381 trillion, up 12% quarter-on-quarter from Q1 2026, a record); the gross margin of 67.7% exceeded the guided 65.5%-67.5% range; net profit attributable to the parent reached a record NT$706.562 billion (EPS NT$27.25); [F-001] the full-year U.S.-dollar revenue growth target was raised a second time to "slightly above 40%" (the April wording was "more than 30%"); [F-002] full-year capital expenditure was lifted to US$60-64 billion (the April wording was near the upper end of US$52-56 billion); [F-003] and TSMC announced an additional US$100 billion investment in Arizona with an estimated four more fabs. [F-004] Second, the "box-range consolidation / monthly-line support" expectation: on conference day the index slipped just 6.61 points to 45,624.98, [F-005] but on the next session, July 17, Taiwan stocks fell 2,953.71 points (down 6.47%) to 42,671.27 -- the largest intraday and closing point drop on record -- breaking below the quarterly moving average; [F-006] TSMC plunged NT$180 that day, its largest point drop ever, with its market value falling below NT$60 trillion, and reports cited the Q3 gross-margin guidance of 65%-67% falling short of the market's hoped-for 70% as the main trigger; [F-007] single-day foreign net selling of NT$189.039 billion set a record; [F-008] the week's listed-market value shrank by NT$8.676361 trillion from the prior week -- yet the "ex-electronics" index fell only 0.27% that week and the "ex-financial-and-electronics" index actually rose 1.03%, with the decline heavily concentrated in electronics (all index figures are TWSE statistics as relayed by CNA). [F-009] In a July 19 report, Li Fang-kuo, chairman of President Securities Investment Advisory, pinned the root cause on "deleveraging in the Korean stock market" (Samsung at a 28% index weight plus SK hynix at 24%, the two together carrying over half of Korea's index weight per the report; ETF leverage amplified the move, which traveled via SK hynix's ADR to the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and on to Taiwan and Japan), while veteran analyst Tsai Ming-han said "TSMC is not the culprit"; [F-010] the sessions that followed were violent: +1,783.17 points on July 21, the largest closing point gain on record, [F-020] +592.91 points to 44,825.78 on July 22, [F-012] a mere +25.03 on July 23, [F-021] then -1,195.97 points (the ninth-largest point drop in history) to 43,654.84 on July 24 -- even so, the week still ended up 983.57 points. [F-013] By July 24 the reports' wording had become "the monthly moving average at 45,301 points as overhead resistance," against the target card's July 5/6 wording of monthly-line "support" (45,537 / about 45,623) -- support had turned into resistance (the two readings are laid out side by side; the moving average shifts over time and this card does not adjudicate). [F-014] Third, the fundraising wave: SpaceX's stock now trades more than 12% below its US$135 IPO price (US$118.25 at the July 23 close), nearly halved from its June 16 intraday peak of US$225.64; short sellers' cumulative paper profit is US$15.5 billion; the first earnings report lands August 4, unlocking 911.5 million shares from August 6; [F-015][F-023] the AI hyperscalers (Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, Meta, Oracle) have outstanding bonds approaching US$500 billion this year, and the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has held above 5% for 12 straight days, the longest streak since 2007; [F-016] on the TSMC side there were also the Nikkei Asia report of "up to 10% price hikes in 2027" with the company's "strategic, not opportunistic" response, [F-017] and an NT$18.5 billion green-bond issue. [F-018] All figures are as reported (see the Scope section for source limitations).

Body

Layer overview: how subsequent facts answered chapter three's three open points

Target card ANK-2026-07-06-004 (published 2026-07-06) recorded "box-range consolidation under tight liquidity" from the July 3-6 reports and left three open points in its P-Units. This card checks each (typed layer actions as follows):

1. P-001, the actual terms of TSMC's July 16 conference → REVISE: the April wording (growth target above 30%; capex near the upper end of US$52-56 billion) was entirely superseded by the July 16 wording (slightly above 40%; US$60-64 billion); on gross margin, the Q2 actual of 67.7% already exceeded the company's own guidance range -- but the market's focus immediately shifted to the Q3 guidance of 65%-67% "falling short of the market's hoped-for 70%" (CNA#1539702, CNA#1539339, CNA#1538882, CNA#1568400). [F-001][F-002][F-003][F-007]
2. P-002, verification of the "box-range / monthly-line support" expectation → CHALLENGE: the subsequent tape did not stay in a box -- the largest point drop on record on July 17, the largest closing point gain on record on July 21, and the ninth-largest point drop on July 24; by the July 24 report the monthly line's wording had flipped from "support" to "overhead resistance" (CNA#1568415, CNA#1628181, CNA#1673741, CNA#1671325). [F-006][F-020][F-013][F-014]
3. P-003, the heavyweight fundraising wave → REVISE + ADD_EVIDENCE: the SpaceX listing side now has follow-up readings (share price nearly halved; a lock-up expiry timetable), and the AI bond wave has an aggregate reading (outstanding bonds approaching US$500 billion) with its rate backdrop (the 30-year Treasury above 5% for 12 straight days); as for the SpaceX five-tranche bond plan and Nvidia's US$25 billion corporate bond recorded in the target card, no individual completion reports appear in this card's sources (through July 24, 2026) (CNYES#1626901, CNYES#1672834, CNYES#1661102). [F-015][F-023][F-016]

There are also three further layer types: ADD_EVIDENCE (the July 16-24 daily market and flow records and the TWSE weekly statistics), CONTEXTUALIZE (the July 19 deleveraging analysis; July 24 geopolitics and oil), and CONNECT (links to this site's ANK-2026-07-18-004, ANK-2026-07-22-003, ANK-2026-07-22-004, ANK-2026-07-22-005) -- see the layer field of each F-Unit.

July 16: every item came in above the April wording (REVISE)

The pre-conference watch points the target card recorded were "whether the growth target is raised again, whether capex is lifted, whether the gross margin can challenge 70%." The actual July 16 terms: Q2 revenue of US$40.2 billion, at the top of the guided US$39-40.2 billion; about NT$1.270381 trillion, up 12% quarter-on-quarter from Q1 2026, a record; gross margin 67.7%, above the guided 65.5%-67.5% and up 1.5 percentage points from Q1; operating margin 60.3%, above the guided 56.5%-58.5%; net profit attributable to the parent NT$706.562 billion, up 23.4% quarter-on-quarter, a record, with EPS of NT$27.25. Advanced processes (7nm and below) made up about 77% of wafer sales -- 2nm about 3%, 3nm 30%, 5nm 33%, 7nm 11% (CNA#1538882). [F-001]

Chairman and President C.C. Wei said AI-related demand is strong and that "customers and customers' customers" are sending strong signals and positive outlooks, and he expects 2026 full-year U.S.-dollar revenue growth (versus 2025) to come in "slightly above 40%" -- the second raise after April's move to "more than 30%"; CFO Wendell Huang guided Q3 revenue at US$44.6-45.8 billion (up 12% quarter-on-quarter at the midpoint), gross margin at about 65%-67% and operating margin at about 56%-58% (CNA#1539702). [F-002] Capex was lifted to US$60-64 billion, with about 70%-80% for advanced processes; Q2 capex of US$15.7 billion was up 41.4% from Q1's US$11.1 billion and up 63% from US$9.63 billion in Q2 2025 (CNA#1539339). [F-003] Wei also announced an additional US$100 billion investment in Arizona with an estimated four more fabs plus advanced-packaging plants, alongside 13 advanced fabs to be built in Taiwan over the coming years and three new 3nm fabs (one each in Taiwan, Arizona and Japan) (CNA#1539819). [F-004] The Reuters-angle analysis of this announcement is already recorded in this site's ANK-2026-07-22-005 and is not re-minted here.

The market waited on conference day: the index fell more than 600 points intraday but closed just 6.61 points lower (versus the previous session) at 45,624.98; TSMC turned from losses to gains to close up NT$30 at NT$2,470; foreign and mainland Chinese investors net sold NT$48.335 billion that day (CNA#1538766, CNA#1544283). [F-005][F-019]

July 17: the largest point drop on record, and "TSMC is not the culprit" (CHALLENGE)

The next session reversed everything. On July 17 Taiwan stocks fell 2,953.71 points (down 6.47% from the previous session) to 42,671.27, the largest intraday and closing point drop on record, breaking the quarterly moving average at 43,529 and the 43,000 mark; overnight (U.S. Eastern time, July 16) the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index had slumped 4.29%, and heavyweight electronics led the selling -- UMC, Yageo and Nanya Plastics closed limit-down (CNA#1568415). [F-006] TSMC plunged NT$180, its largest point drop ever, closing at the day's low of NT$2,290, below its own quarterly line of about NT$2,325; its market value shrank NT$4.66 trillion in one day to NT$59.38 trillion, below NT$60 trillion, dragging the index by about 1,430 points. The reported main trigger: the Q3 gross-margin guidance of 65%-67% fell short of the market's hoped-for 70% and even implies a decline from Q2's 67.7%, as the fast 2nm ramp could dilute margins by 3-4 percentage points (CNA#1568400). [F-007] Flows also set records: single-day foreign and mainland Chinese net selling of NT$189.039 billion, the largest ever, with the three institutional groups net selling a combined NT$261.715 billion (CNA#1568822). [F-008]

The structural point worth pinning is the week's sector map (TWSE statistics as relayed by CNA on July 17): for the week (measured at the 2026-07-17 close, versus the prior week) Taiwan stocks fell 2,683.34 points (about 5.92%), and total listed-company market value fell NT$8.676361 trillion (about 5.86%) to NT$139.362407 trillion; yet the "ex-electronics" index fell only 0.27% for the week, the "ex-financial-and-electronics" index actually rose 1.03%, and the oil, electricity and gas sector index jumped 30.30% for the week, the biggest gainer -- in the week of the largest point drop on record, the decline was almost entirely concentrated in heavyweight electronics (this "concentration" is this card's editorial juxtaposition of the index figures carried in the same report, not the source's own sentence) (CNA#1577403). [F-009] Together with this site's ANK-2026-07-18-004 record of the week to July 9 (down 1,426.01 points; value down NT$4.6225 trillion; ex-electronics down only 0.74%), this makes two consecutive same-methodology weekly snapshots (a cross-card juxtaposition of existing records, not a new statistic).

The deleveraging transmission chain: Korean ETFs → SK hynix ADR → the SOX → Taiwan and Japan (CONTEXTUALIZE)

A July 19 CNA report supplied the structural map of the sell-off. Li Fang-kuo, chairman of President Securities Investment Advisory, identified the culprit of the global semiconductor pullback as "deleveraging in the Korean stock market": Samsung carries a 28% weight in the Korean market and SK hynix 24% -- the two together, the report notes, carrying more than half of the market's weight; since the end of May 2026 Korea has launched multiple ETFs built around the two heavyweights, and under interacting leverage effects the two stocks' turnover at one point exceeded 70% of the entire Korean market. After Korean stocks hit a record high in June, the deleveraging downside was violent, and "because SK hynix has issued American depositary receipts (ADRs), its decline first hit the U.S. Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, then spread domino-like to the Taiwanese and Japanese markets." He likened it to "chip-side deleveraging turning into everyone selling to everyone" -- a theater stampede after someone lights a cigarette, "when in fact there is no fire at all" (CNA#1600746). [F-010] Against the target card: the July 5 report's wording was that SK hynix "plans" to issue ADRs (one of the money-momentum drains), while the July 19 report's wording treats the ADR's decline as the transmission channel -- both wordings are laid out side by side; the issuance timing is not given by the sources and this card does not adjudicate.

In the same report, veteran securities analyst Tsai Ming-han said flatly that "TSMC is not the culprit" -- the conference beat market expectations on results, full-year outlook and capex alike, and the July 17 plunge was purely short-term profit-taking after "the first half simply rose too much," compounded by geopolitics and the U.S. semiconductor slump. Li Fang-kuo noted that foreign investors' futures short positions had surged to a record 86,000 contracts, while Taiwan's overall margin-maintenance ratio remained above 160% (margin-call line 130%, forced-liquidation line 120%); Taiwan's pullback of about 12% from its peak compares with Korea's near-30% slump from its peak, and he expects fairly strong support near the June 11, 2026 low of 42,006 (CNA#1600746). [F-010] All of the above are interviewees' judgments, not settled conclusions (see Scope).

July 20-24: the record gain and the ninth-largest drop in the same week (ADD_EVIDENCE / CONNECT)

The following week rewrote the "box" into record-scale swings: on July 20 the index swung more than 1,100 points and closed at 42,449.70 (down 221.57 points from the previous session), with UMC hitting limit-down intraday; on July 21 the index rose 1,783.17 points (versus the previous session) to 44,232.87 -- the second-largest intraday gain and the largest closing point gain on record -- breaking back above the quarterly line, with TSMC up NT$90 at NT$2,410 and MediaTek limit-up (CNA#1613772, CNA#1628181). [F-011][F-020] The July 21 single-day main record is in this site's ANK-2026-07-22-003. On July 22 the index added 592.91 points to 44,825.78, reclaiming the 10-day line (single-day record in ANK-2026-07-22-004); on July 23 it swung 749.06 points and closed up just 25.03 at 44,850.81 (CNA#1643129, CNA#1658281). [F-012][F-021]

July 24 brought another slump: the index closed down 1,195.97 points (2.67%, versus the previous session) at 43,654.84 -- the ninth-largest point drop in history -- breaking the quarterly line at about 43,964, with turnover shrinking to NT$792.435 billion; even so, the week (July 20-24) ended up 983.57 points. Foreign and mainland Chinese investors net sold NT$60.951 billion that day, with the three institutional groups net selling a combined NT$66.394 billion. Liu Cheng-yu, deputy general manager at First Financial's investment advisory arm, attributed the day's fall mainly to market doubts over Google's fast cloud expansion turning its cash flow negative, compounded by Middle East tensions pushing oil higher (CNA#1673741, CNA#1673880). [F-013][F-022] The morning report of July 24 supplied the external backdrop: Yemen's Houthi movement claimed attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, worsening the global supply crisis after trade through the Strait of Hormuz nearly halted, and international oil prices closed above US$100 a barrel for the first time since May 2026; on July 23 (U.S. Eastern time) the Nasdaq fell 2.15% to 25,137.69. The report also noted that Taiwan stocks had lately been churning below the monthly moving average, and that the July 23 rebound kept "facing overhead resistance at the monthly line of 45,301 points" (CNA#1671325). [F-014]

Lining up the monthly-line wordings of the target card and this card as a dated series (each is its report-day's wording; the moving average shifts over time; this card only juxtaposes, neither adjudicating nor recalculating): July 5 report, "the monthly line at 45,537 is key support" → July 6 report, "repeatedly testing support at the monthly line around 45,623" → July 24 report, "the monthly line at 45,301 as overhead resistance." Support turning into resistance is the tersest footnote to how chapter three's "box" expectation was overwritten by the subsequent tape -- an editorial juxtaposition of two dated report wordings, not any source's own sentence.

New readings on the money-momentum thesis: SpaceX nearly halved, AI bonds near US$500 billion, the 30-year Treasury at 5% (REVISE / ADD_EVIDENCE)

The core thesis of the target card's F-001 was that "heavyweight companies listing and issuing debt one after another will weigh on market money momentum" (analyst Wang Chao-li's judgment). The verifiable follow-up readings:

The SpaceX side: SpaceX completed a US$75 billion IPO on June 12, 2026 (which Cnyes calls one of the largest aerospace listings ever), with a float below 5% of total shares at listing; on its third trading day (June 16) the stock spiked to US$225.64 intraday before retreating, broke below the US$135 IPO price in mid-July, and closed at US$118.25 on July 23 -- more than 12% below the IPO price and nearly halved from the peak. Per Ortex, short sellers' cumulative paper profit since listing is US$15.5 billion, with about 360 million shares on loan, 56% of the float. The first earnings report lands after the bell on August 4 (U.S. Eastern time); two trading days later (from August 6) 20% of eligible insider and employee holdings -- about 911.5 million shares -- unlock unconditionally, and by early December the float is expected to swell from 639 million to 5.33 billion shares; Musk and core executives remain locked up until June 12, 2027. A Reuters analysis puts the IPO valuation at US$1.77 trillion, a price-to-sales ratio above 90 (CNYES#1626901, CNYES#1672834). [F-015][F-023] The target card's "market value above US$2 trillion" was the July 5 CNA report's quotation of an analyst; the July 24 Cnyes figure of "US$1.77 trillion IPO valuation" belongs to a different report and date -- this card lays both out without adjudicating (see Scope).

The bond-and-rates side: a July 23 Cnyes translated report: the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 5.146% on July 22, holding above 5% for 12 straight days, the longest streak since 2007; the AI investment boom keeps Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, Meta and Oracle issuing long-dated corporate bonds in size, with the six firms' outstanding bonds this year approaching US$500 billion per BondCliQ; U.S. June CPI rose 3.5% year-on-year (versus June 2025), and U.S. debt-to-GDP crossed 100% this spring (CNYES#1661102). [F-016] As for the target card's Nvidia "US$25 billion corporate bond" and SpaceX's "reported five-tranche, at least US$25 billion" plans, this card's sources (through July 24, 2026) contain no individual completion reports; Nvidia appears in the list of major AI bond issuers above, but that figure is the six firms' combined outstanding stock of bonds and must not be conflated with any single issue (see Scope).

Two TSMC follow-ups: the 2027 price-hike report and the NT$18.5 billion green bond (ADD_EVIDENCE)

The "TSMC intends to raise prices" intention recorded in the target card's F-007 now has a concrete report and a company response: Nikkei Asia reported on July 21, citing multiple sources, that TSMC has discussed price rises with customers to reflect rising costs of materials, equipment and new overseas fabs, and plans to raise prices for advanced- and mature-process chip manufacturing services by up to 10% in 2027, depending on customer and product type; Reuters could not immediately verify the report. TSMC responded that it "does not comment on pricing," and that its pricing is always "strategic, not opportunistic" (CNA#1631373). [F-017] On the funding side, TSMC announced on July 22 an NT$18.5 billion unsecured ordinary corporate bond issue (a green bond): NT$14 billion of 5-year notes at a fixed 2.03% and NT$4.5 billion of 10-year notes at a fixed 2.1%, with proceeds for green-building and environmental spending, the third tranche within a NT$60 billion domestic program the board approved in February 2026 (CNA#1646747). [F-018] This is a routine domestic funding announcement; the source does not link it to the U.S. bond wave or Taiwan-market liquidity, and this card lists it side by side without inferring causality.

Scope (source limitations, consolidated once)

• Zero verified official anchors: official_count_verified = 0. Every index level, point change, amount, ratio, market value, yield and share count in this card is as reported by CNA and Cnyes -- including CNA's relays of Taiwan Stock Exchange statistics and TSMC investor-conference statements, and Cnyes's translated relays of Ortex, BondCliQ, Reuters and Nikkei Asia. This site has not independently verified any figure with the exchange, TSMC, U.S. market-data providers or any primary source; every basis is news_aggregation, and nothing here constitutes official endorsement.
• Time bases: every "rise/fall/increase/decrease" sentence follows the base stated in the same sentence (versus the previous session / versus the prior week / QoQ = versus the prior quarter / YoY = versus the same period of 2025); "largest point drop / largest closing point gain / ninth-largest point drop" are all point-based records (not percentage records), per each report's wording.
• Technical lines shift over time and reports differ: the quarterly line -- 43,529 (July 17 report), 43,525 (July 19 report), 43,709 (July 21 report), about 43,964 (July 24 report); the monthly line -- 45,537 (July 5 report, support), about 45,623 (July 6 report, support), 45,301 (July 24 report, overhead resistance). This card lays out each dated reading as-is, neither adjudicating nor recalculating; "support turned into resistance" is an editorial juxtaposition of two dated report wordings, not any source's own sentence.
• Two SpaceX reading pairs laid side by side: valuation -- "market value above US$2 trillion" (July 5, 2026 CNA report quoting analyst Wang Chao-li) vs. "IPO valuation US$1.77 trillion, price-to-sales above 90" (July 24, 2026 Cnyes citing a Reuters analysis); unlock value -- about US$109.2 billion (July 21 report's estimate at the then price of US$119.85) vs. US$116 billion (July 24 report's peak-value wording); post-listing peak -- "a record high of US$225" (July 21 report's wording) vs. "the June 16 intraday peak of US$225.64" (July 24 report's wording). Each belongs to its own report; this card does not adjudicate.
• Two oil-price wordings: "Brent back above US$94 a barrel" (as of the July 23 Cnyes report) and "international oil prices closed above US$100 a barrel for the first time since May 2026" (July 24 CNA report) belong to different report dates, and the latter does not name the benchmark; this card does not merge or compare them.
• Views are not settled conclusions: the analyses and expectations of Li Fang-kuo ("deleveraging," "everyone selling to everyone," "mistaken kill"), Tsai Ming-han ("TSMC is not the culprit"), Wang Chao-li and Liu Cheng-yu are interviewees' judgments; TSMC's Q3 guidance and the 2027 price-hike report (Nikkei Asia citing sources; Reuters unverified; the company declining comment) are not accomplished facts.
• Bond-wave scope: the AI issuers' "outstanding bonds approaching US$500 billion" is BondCliQ's combined outstanding figure for six firms (Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, Meta, Oracle), a different measure from the target card's single Nvidia bond plan (US$25 billion) -- the two must not be conflated. No individual completion reports for the SpaceX five-tranche bonds or the Nvidia US$25 billion bond appear in this card's sources (through July 24, 2026) -- a statement about this card's search scope, not an assertion that they did not happen.
• Chapter naming: "chapter four, 'conference good news and the deleveraging stampede'" is this site's editorial label linking the event chain; "deleveraging" and "stampede" are the sources' interviewees' words. "The decline concentrated in electronics" is this card's editorial juxtaposition of index figures carried within CNA#1577403, not the source's own sentence.
• Chronology: this card's publication date 2026-07-25 ≥ the latest source date 2026-07-24; the SpaceX unlock timetable and the U.S. earnings week are scheduled items as reported.

FAQ

Q: What exactly did TSMC announce at the July 16, 2026 investor conference?

Q2 revenue of US$40.2 billion (about NT$1.270381 trillion, up 12% QoQ from Q1 2026, a record); a gross margin of 67.7%, above its own 65.5%-67.5% guidance; record net profit attributable to the parent of NT$706.562 billion (EPS NT$27.25); a second raise of the full-year U.S.-dollar revenue growth target to "slightly above 40%" (April wording: more than 30%); full-year capex lifted to US$60-64 billion (April wording: near the upper end of US$52-56 billion); an additional US$100 billion investment in Arizona with an estimated four more fabs; and 13 advanced fabs to be built in Taiwan over the coming years.

Against the three pre-conference watch points recorded in the target card (ANK-2026-07-06-004), every answer came in above the April wording; Q3 guidance is US$44.6-45.8 billion in revenue with a gross margin of about 65%-67% (CNA#1538882, CNA#1539702, CNA#1539339, CNA#1539819).

Q: If the conference was good news, why did Taiwan stocks log their largest point drop the next day?

On July 17 Taiwan stocks fell 2,953.71 points (6.47%) to 42,671.27, the largest intraday and closing point drop on record; the reported direct trigger was TSMC's Q3 gross-margin guidance of 65%-67% falling short of the market's hoped-for 70%, with the stock plunging NT$180 -- its largest point drop ever (market value below NT$60 trillion, dragging the index by about 1,430 points) -- after the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index slumped 4.29% overnight. In the July 19 report, Li Fang-kuo pinned the structural culprit on "deleveraging in the Korean stock market" (Samsung 28% plus SK hynix 24% of index weight; ETF leverage amplification; transmission via the SK hynix ADR to the SOX and on to Taiwan and Japan), while Tsai Ming-han said "TSMC is not the culprit" -- profit-taking after an overheated first half, compounded by geopolitics.

All causal attributions are the reports' and interviewees' views, not this card's findings (CNA#1568415, CNA#1568400, CNA#1600746).

Q: How much was lost in the crash week, and which sectors bucked the fall?

TWSE statistics (as relayed by CNA on July 17): for the week (measured at the 2026-07-17 close, versus the prior week) Taiwan stocks fell 2,683.34 points (about 5.92%), and total listed-company market value fell NT$8.676361 trillion (about 5.86%) to NT$139.362407 trillion; foreign investors net sold a record NT$189.039 billion on July 17 alone. Yet the "ex-electronics" index fell only 0.27% for the week, the "ex-financial-and-electronics" index actually rose 1.03%, and the oil, electricity and gas sector index jumped 30.30% for the week -- the decline was heavily concentrated in heavyweight electronics.

"Concentrated" is this card's editorial juxtaposition of index figures within the same report; the market-value decline is the weekly change in total listed-company value, not investors' realized losses (CNA#1577403, CNA#1568822).

Q: How did July 20-24 trade?

July 20: closed 42,449.70 (down 221.57 points from the previous session; an intraday swing of more than 1,100 points). July 21: up 1,783.17 points to 44,232.87, the largest closing point gain on record. July 22: up another 592.91 points to 44,825.78. July 23: up just 25.03 points to 44,850.81. July 24: down 1,195.97 points (the ninth-largest point drop in history) to 43,654.84, breaking the quarterly line at about 43,964 -- yet the week still ended up 983.57 points. The reported drivers of July 24's fall (interviewees' views as reported): doubts over Google's cloud expansion turning cash flow negative, and Middle East tensions pushing international oil prices above US$100 a barrel at the close for the first time since May 2026.

Within six sessions the market logged the largest closing point drop on record (July 17), the largest closing point gain on record (July 21) and the ninth-largest point drop (July 24) -- a cross-report juxtaposition of existing records, not a new statistic (CNA#1613772, CNA#1628181, CNA#1643129, CNA#1658281, CNA#1673741, CNA#1671325).

Q: What became of chapter three's "box-range consolidation and monthly-line support" expectation?

The target card's two monthly-line readings (45,537 in the July 5 report / about 45,623 in the July 6 report) were "support" at the time; on July 17 the index broke straight through the quarterly line to close at 42,671.27, and by July 24 the reports' wording was already "the monthly line at 45,301 as overhead resistance" and "breaking the quarterly line at about 43,964." The institutional "box-range consolidation" expectation (which the target card had already flagged as an expectation, not a settled fact) was overwritten by the subsequent tape into record-scale swings.

Monthly- and quarterly-line values shift over time and differ across reports (see Scope); "support turned into resistance" is an editorial juxtaposition of two dated report wordings (CNA#1568415, CNA#1671325, CNA#1673741).

Q: What are the latest readings on the "tight liquidity" thesis (SpaceX, the bond wave)?

SpaceX: closed at US$118.25 on July 23, more than 12% below the US$135 IPO price and nearly halved from the June 16 intraday peak of US$225.64; short sellers' cumulative paper profit is US$15.5 billion, with about 360 million shares on loan, 56% of the float; first earnings on August 4, 911.5 million shares unlocking from August 6, and the float expected to grow from 639 million to 5.33 billion shares by early December. Bonds: the six AI hyperscalers' outstanding bonds this year approach US$500 billion (BondCliQ), and the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has held above 5% for 12 straight days, the longest streak since 2007.

No individual completion reports for the target card's SpaceX five-tranche bonds or Nvidia's US$25 billion corporate bond appear in this card's sources (through July 24, 2026) (CNYES#1626901, CNYES#1672834, CNYES#1661102).

F-Units

F-001: At its July 16, 2026 investor conference TSMC reported Q2 revenue of US$40.2 billion, at the top of the guided US$39-40.2 billion -- about NT$1.270381 trillion, a record, up 12% quarter-on-quarter from Q1 2026; a gross margin of 67.7%, above the guided 65.5%-67.5% and up 1.5 percentage points from Q1; an operating margin of 60.3%, above the guided 56.5%-58.5%; record net profit attributable to the parent of NT$706.562 billion, up 23.4% quarter-on-quarter, with EPS of NT$27.25; 2nm at about 3% of wafer sales, 3nm 30%, 5nm 33%, 7nm 11%, advanced processes about 77% combined; first-half revenue of NT$2.404484 trillion, up 35.6% year-on-year versus the same period of 2025, with first-half net profit attributable to the parent of NT$1.279042 trillion, up 68.3% year-on-year, and EPS of NT$49.32

• source: CNA #1538882
• source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607160156.aspx
• confidence: high
• basis: news_aggregation
• period: Q2 and first-half 2026 (announced at the 2026-07-16 conference; CNA report of 2026-07-16)
• caveat: CNA's relay of TSMC's conference disclosures; this site has not verified the original financial statements (see Scope)
• layer: REVISE (the actual-result answer to the target card's P-001 "can the gross margin challenge 70%")

F-002: C.C. Wei said at the July 16, 2026 conference that AI-related demand is strong and "customers and customers' customers" are sending strong signals and positive outlooks, and that 2026 full-year U.S.-dollar revenue growth (versus 2025) is expected to come in "slightly above 40%" -- the second raise after the April online conference's move to "more than 30%"; CFO Wendell Huang guided Q3 revenue at US$44.6-45.8 billion (up 12% quarter-on-quarter at the midpoint), gross margin at about 65%-67% and operating margin at about 56%-58%

• source: CNA #1539702
• source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607160182.aspx
• confidence: high
• basis: news_aggregation
• period: 2026 full-year target and Q3 guidance (conference 2026-07-16; CNA report of 2026-07-16)
• caveat: the growth target and Q3 guidance are company expectations, not accomplished facts (see Scope)
• layer: REVISE (the answer to the target card's P-001 "whether the growth target is raised again")

F-003: TSMC lifted its 2026 full-year capital expenditure to US$60-64 billion at the July 16, 2026 conference (the mid-April wording was near the upper end of the US$52-56 billion range); about 70%-80% goes to advanced processes, about 10% to specialty processes and 10%-20% to advanced packaging, testing, masks and others; CFO Wendell Huang said higher capex means higher growth opportunities in the coming years and that capacity expansion will hit no bottlenecks, citing structural demand including the growing agentic-AI market; Q2 capex of US$15.7 billion was up 41.4% from Q1's US$11.1 billion and up 63% from US$9.63 billion in Q2 2025; first-half capex of US$26.8 billion was up 36% from US$19.69 billion a year earlier

• source: CNA #1539339
• source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607160178.aspx
• confidence: high
• basis: news_aggregation
• period: 2026 capex plan and Q2/first-half actuals (conference 2026-07-16; CNA report of 2026-07-16)
• caveat: the capex plan is a company plan, not an accomplished fact; "no bottlenecks" is the CFO's statement (see Scope)
• layer: REVISE (the answer to the target card's P-001 "whether capex is lifted")

F-004: C.C. Wei announced on July 16, 2026 an additional US$100 billion investment in Arizona, with an estimated four more fabs plus advanced-packaging plants (progress depending on market conditions); TSMC will simultaneously build 13 advanced fabs in Taiwan over the coming years; it plans three new 3nm fabs (one each in Taiwan, Arizona and Japan) and will convert a 5nm fab in Taiwan to support 3nm production

• source: CNA #1539819
• source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607160187.aspx
• confidence: high
• basis: news_aggregation
• period: announced at the 2026-07-16 conference (CNA report of 2026-07-16)
• caveat: all are announced plans with "estimated" counts and market-dependent progress; for the Reuters angle see this site's ANK-2026-07-22-005 (see Scope)
• layer: REVISE + CONNECT (follow-up to the Arizona-expansion relay in the target card's F-007; interlink with ANK-2026-07-22-005)

F-005: On conference day, July 16, 2026, the index fell more than 600 points intraday but closed at 45,624.98, down just 6.61 points from the previous session (0.01%), with turnover shrinking to NT$900.838 billion; TSMC turned from losses to gains to close up NT$30 at NT$2,470

• source: CNA #1538766
• source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607160151.aspx
• confidence: high
• basis: news_aggregation
• period: 2026-07-16 (Taipei close)
• caveat: single-day market data as reported by CNA (see Scope)
• layer: ADD_EVIDENCE (daily evidence for the event chain)

F-006: On July 17, 2026 Taiwan stocks fell 2,953.71 points (down 6.47% from the previous session) to 42,671.27, the largest intraday and closing point drop on record, breaking the quarterly moving average at 43,529 and the 43,000 mark; overnight (U.S. Eastern time, 2026-07-16) the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index had slumped 4.29%, and heavyweight electronics led the selling; UMC, Yageo and Nanya Plastics closed limit-down (NT$144, NT$699, NT$199), with Delta Electronics and MediaTek down more than 8%

• source: CNA #1568415
• source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607170128.aspx
• confidence: high
• basis: news_aggregation
• period: 2026-07-17 (Taipei close); the 4.29% SOX move is the U.S. Eastern 2026-07-16 session (per the report's context)
• caveat: "largest point drop on record" is a point-based record, not a percentage record; another report gives the quarterly line as 43,525, which this card lays out side by side (see Scope)
• layer: CHALLENGE (the subsequent tape checked against the target card's "box-range consolidation" expectation)

F-007: TSMC plunged NT$180 on July 17, 2026, its largest point drop ever, closing at the day's low of NT$2,290, below its own quarterly line of about NT$2,325; its market value shrank NT$4.66 trillion in one day to NT$59.38 trillion, below NT$60 trillion, dragging the index by about 1,430 points; the reported main trigger was the Q3 gross-margin guidance of 65%-67% falling short of the market's hoped-for 70% and even implying a decline from Q2's 67.7% (the fast 2nm capacity ramp could dilute margins by 3-4 percentage points); a large closing sell order of 9,277 units hit the tape; the day's turnover of NT$175.225 billion and intraday odd-lot turnover of NT$48.558 billion (an 11-fold jump from the previous session) both led the market

• source: CNA #1568400
• source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607170143.aspx
• confidence: high
• basis: news_aggregation
• period: 2026-07-17 (Taipei close; market value and odd-lot statistics per the report's relay of TWSE data)
• caveat: the 70% is the market's hoped-for level (the same measure as "challenging 70%" in the target card's F-007), not a company target (see Scope)
• layer: CHALLENGE + REVISE (record results and a record share-price drop in the same frame)

F-008: On July 17, 2026 foreign and mainland Chinese investors net sold NT$189.039 billion of Taiwan stocks, the largest single-day net sell on record; proprietary dealers net sold NT$82.179 billion, investment trusts net bought NT$9.503 billion, and the three institutional groups net sold a combined NT$261.715 billion; the day's turnover was NT$1.212957 trillion

• source: CNA #1568822
• source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607170179.aspx
• confidence: high
• basis: news_aggregation
• period: 2026-07-17 (Taipei close)
• caveat: single-day flow data as reported by CNA (see Scope)
• layer: ADD_EVIDENCE (record flow evidence)

F-009: TWSE statistics (as relayed by CNA on July 17, 2026): for the week (measured at the 2026-07-17 close, versus the prior week) Taiwan stocks fell 2,683.34 points (about 5.92%) to 42,671.27; total listed-company market value was NT$139.362407 trillion, down NT$8.676361 trillion (about 5.86%) from the prior week; by sector for the week (versus the prior week), the oil, electricity and gas index rose 30.30%, the most, and the glass and ceramics index fell 11.85%, the deepest; the ex-financial index fell 2,544.41 points for the week (about 6.25%), the ex-electronics index fell only 63.87 points (about 0.27%), and the ex-financial-and-electronics index rose 162.05 points (about 1.03%); semiconductor-sector turnover of NT$2.004867 trillion made up 39.91% of all listed-stock trading for the week

• source: CNA #1577403
• source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607170307.aspx
• confidence: high
• basis: news_aggregation
• period: the week measured at the 2026-07-17 close, versus the prior week
• caveat: the market-value decline is the weekly change in total listed-company value, not investors' realized losses; the "ex-X" indices are TWSE indices excluding that sector, a different measure from the weighted index; "the decline concentrated in electronics" is this card's editorial juxtaposition, not the source's sentence (see Scope)
• layer: ADD_EVIDENCE + CONNECT (two consecutive snapshots with ANK-2026-07-18-004's week-to-July-9 report)

F-010: CNA report of July 19, 2026: Li Fang-kuo, chairman of President Securities Investment Advisory, identified the culprit of the global semiconductor pullback as "deleveraging in the Korean stock market" -- Samsung carries 28% of Korea's index weight and SK hynix 24%, with the report stating the two together carry more than half of the market's weight; since end-May 2026 Korea launched multiple ETFs around the two heavyweights, and under leverage effects the two stocks' turnover at one point exceeded 70% of the whole Korean market; after Korean stocks hit a record high in June, the deleveraging downside was violent, hitting the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index via SK hynix's ADR and spreading to Taiwan and Japan ("everyone selling to everyone," "stampede" are his metaphors); foreign investors' futures short positions surged to a record 86,000 contracts; Taiwan's overall margin-maintenance ratio stayed above 160% (margin-call line 130%, forced-liquidation line 120%); Taiwan's pullback is about 12% from its peak versus Korea's near-30% slump from its peak, and he expects fairly strong support near the June 11, 2026 low of 42,006; veteran securities analyst Tsai Ming-han said "TSMC is not the culprit" -- the conference beat market expectations, and the plunge was profit-taking after an overheated first half compounded by geopolitics; on July 17, 2026 (U.S. Eastern time) the Dow fell 406.55 points (0.77%) to 52,146.42, the S&P 500 fell 76.08 points (1.01%) to 7,457.69, the Nasdaq fell 361.70 points (1.4%) to 25,520.25, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 193.612 points (1.63%) to 11,673.891

• source: CNA #1600746
• source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607190026.aspx
• confidence: medium
• basis: news_aggregation
• period: CNA report of 2026-07-19; U.S. market data are the U.S. Eastern 2026-07-17 session
• caveat: Li's and Tsai's analyses are interviewees' judgments, not settled conclusions; the SK hynix ADR issuance timing is not given by the sources -- laid side by side with the target card's "plans to issue" wording without adjudication; this report's quarterly-line figure of 43,525 is laid alongside CNA#1568415's 43,529 (see Scope)
• layer: CONTEXTUALIZE (the structural map of the sell-off)

F-011: On July 20, 2026 Taiwan stocks swung more than 1,100 points intraday and closed at 42,449.70 (down 221.57 points from the previous session, 0.52%), with turnover of NT$983.863 billion; UMC was sold down to limit-down at NT$130 intraday on volume above 290,000 units

• source: CNA #1613772
• source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607200124.aspx
• confidence: high
• basis: news_aggregation
• period: 2026-07-20 (Taipei close)
• caveat: single-day market data as reported by CNA (see Scope)
• layer: ADD_EVIDENCE (daily evidence for the event chain)

F-012: On July 22, 2026 Taiwan stocks rose 592.91 points (versus the previous session) to 44,825.78, reclaiming the 10-day line at about 44,664, with turnover of NT$982.645 billion

• source: CNA #1643129
• source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607220144.aspx
• confidence: high
• basis: news_aggregation
• period: 2026-07-22 (Taipei close)
• caveat: the July 22 single-day main record is this site's ANK-2026-07-22-004 (see Scope)
• layer: ADD_EVIDENCE + CONNECT (interlink with ANK-2026-07-22-004)

F-013: On July 24, 2026 Taiwan stocks opened lower and kept falling, closing down 1,195.97 points (2.67%, versus the previous session) at 43,654.84 -- the ninth-largest point drop in history -- breaking the quarterly line at about 43,964, with turnover shrinking to NT$792.435 billion; for the week (2026-07-20 to 07-24) the weighted index rose 983.57 points, turning the weekly line positive; TSMC closed at NT$2,350 (down NT$55, 2.29%, versus the previous session), Delta Electronics at NT$1,785 (down NT$95, 5.05%), Nanya Plastics limit-down at NT$177.5, Formosa Petrochemical down 7.94% at NT$85.8, Nanya Technology down 5.87% at NT$401, Winbond down 4.04% at NT$154.5 (all versus the previous session); Liu Cheng-yu, deputy general manager at First Financial's investment advisory arm, attributed the fall mainly to doubts over Google's fast cloud expansion turning cash flow negative plus Middle East tensions lifting oil, and named next week's heavyweight U.S. earnings (Microsoft, Qualcomm, Arm, Meta, Apple, Amazon and others) as the near-term watch point

• source: CNA #1673741
• source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607240170.aspx
• confidence: high
• basis: news_aggregation
• period: 2026-07-24 (Taipei close); the weekly figure covers 2026-07-20 to 07-24
• caveat: "ninth-largest point drop in history" is a point-based record; Liu's view is an interviewee's judgment, not a settled conclusion (see Scope)
• layer: ADD_EVIDENCE (the event chain's latest session)

F-014: CNA morning report of July 24, 2026: Yemen's Houthi movement claimed attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, worsening the global supply crisis after trade through the Strait of Hormuz nearly halted, and international oil prices closed above US$100 a barrel for the first time since May 2026; earnings from large U.S. tech companies revived investor worries over massive AI spending; on July 23, 2026 (U.S. Eastern time) the Dow fell 506.93 points (0.97%) to 51,711.65, the S&P 500 fell 90.66 points (1.21%) to 7,408.30, the Nasdaq fell 553.21 points (2.15%) to 25,137.69, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 66.83 points (0.54%) to 12,343.84; the report also noted Taiwan stocks had lately churned below the monthly moving average, with the July 23 rebound continuing to face overhead resistance at the monthly line of 45,301 points

• source: CNA #1671325
• source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607240026.aspx
• confidence: medium
• basis: news_aggregation
• period: CNA morning report of 2026-07-24; U.S. markets are the U.S. Eastern 2026-07-23 session
• caveat: "closed above US$100 a barrel" does not name the benchmark and belongs to a different report date from CNYES#1661102's Brent wording -- not merged; the monthly line of 45,301 is that report-day's reading, laid alongside the target card's 45,537/45,623 without adjudication (see Scope)
• layer: CONTEXTUALIZE + CHALLENGE (the monthly line's "support" → "resistance" wording contrast)

F-015: SpaceX completed a US$75 billion IPO on June 12, 2026 (which Cnyes calls one of the largest aerospace-industry listings ever), with a float below 5% of total shares at listing; early after listing the stock at one point spiked to a record high of US$225 before falling back quickly, broke below the US$135 IPO price in mid-July, and stood at about US$119.85 as of that report; the first earnings report lands after the bell on August 4, 2026 (U.S. Eastern time), and two trading days later 20% of eligible insider and employee holdings -- about 911.5 million shares -- unlock unconditionally (the report estimated the unlock value at about US$109.2 billion at its report-time price); a price-conditioned unlock (about 455.8 million additional shares if the stock holds above US$175.5 on 5 of the 10 trading days before earnings) will not trigger for now with the price far below the threshold, per the report; Musk and core executives remain locked up until June 12, 2027

• source: CNYES #1626901
• source_url: https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/6541222
• confidence: medium
• basis: news_aggregation
• period: Cnyes report of 2026-07-21
• caveat: all figures are Cnyes relays, not verified by this site against primary data; the unlock value of about US$109.2 billion is that report's estimate at its report-time price (about US$119.85), laid alongside CNYES#1672834's "peak value of US$116 billion" wording without adjudication (see Scope)
• layer: REVISE (follow-up readings on the target card's P-003 "SpaceX listing / fundraising wave")

F-016: Cnyes translated report of July 23, 2026: the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose 1.6 basis points from the previous session to 5.146% on July 22, 2026, holding above 5% for 12 straight days, the longest streak since 2007; U.S. June 2026 CPI rose 3.5% year-on-year (versus June 2025); the AI investment boom keeps hyperscalers Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, Meta and Oracle issuing long-dated corporate bonds in size, with the six firms' outstanding bonds this year approaching US$500 billion per BondCliQ; the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.657% and the 2-year at 4.301% (the highest since February 2025); U.S. debt-to-GDP crossed 100% in spring 2026 with total national debt approaching US$40 trillion; Brent crude was back above US$94 a barrel (as of that report)

• source: CNYES #1661102
• source_url: https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/6543320
• confidence: medium
• basis: news_aggregation
• period: Cnyes translated report of 2026-07-23; yields are the U.S. Eastern 2026-07-22 session
• caveat: "approaching US$500 billion" is BondCliQ's combined outstanding figure for six firms -- a different measure from the target card's single Nvidia bond plan (US$25 billion), not to be conflated; all figures are translated relays not verified by this site (see Scope)
• layer: ADD_EVIDENCE (the aggregate reading on the target card's "bond wave weighs on money momentum" thesis)

F-017: Nikkei Asia reported on July 21, 2026, citing multiple sources, that TSMC has discussed price rises with customers to reflect rising costs of materials, manufacturing equipment and new overseas fabs, and plans to raise prices for advanced- and mature-process chip manufacturing services by up to 10% in 2027, depending on customer and product type; Reuters could not immediately verify the report; TSMC told CNA the same day that it "does not comment on pricing," and that its pricing has always been strategy-oriented rather than opportunity-oriented, continuing to work closely with customers to deliver value

• source: CNA #1631373
• source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607210303.aspx
• confidence: medium
• basis: news_aggregation
• period: CNA report of 2026-07-21 (relaying the same-day Nikkei Asia report and the company's response)
• caveat: the price hike is a media report citing unnamed sources, unverified by Reuters, with the company declining comment -- not an accomplished fact (see Scope)
• layer: ADD_EVIDENCE (the concrete follow-up to the "intends to raise prices" intention in the target card's F-007)

F-018: TSMC announced on July 22, 2026 an NT$18.5 billion unsecured ordinary corporate bond issue (a green bond): NT$14 billion of 5-year Class A notes at a fixed annual rate of 2.03% and NT$4.5 billion of 10-year Class B notes at a fixed 2.1%, with Taishin Securities as lead underwriter and proceeds for green-building and environmental spending; to fund capacity expansion and green-related spending, the board approved in February 2026 a program of up to NT$60 billion of domestic unsecured ordinary corporate bonds in tranches, of which this is the third tranche of 2026

• source: CNA #1646747
• source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607220331.aspx
• confidence: high
• basis: news_aggregation
• period: announced 2026-07-22 (CNA report of 2026-07-22)
• caveat: a routine domestic funding announcement; the source does not link it to the U.S. bond wave or Taiwan-market liquidity, and this card lists it side by side without causal inference (see Scope)
• layer: ADD_EVIDENCE (evidence on TSMC's funding-side actions)

F-019: On July 16, 2026 (TSMC's conference day) the three institutional groups net sold a combined NT$43.143 billion of Taiwan stocks: foreign and mainland Chinese investors net sold NT$48.335 billion (Nanya Plastics topped the sell list at 52,646 units; TSMC was also net sold at 4,214 units), proprietary dealers net sold NT$3.357 billion, and investment trusts net bought NT$8.549 billion

• source: CNA #1544283
• source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607160294.aspx
• confidence: high
• basis: news_aggregation
• period: 2026-07-16 (Taipei close)
• caveat: single-day flow data; the sell ranking is unit-based, a different measure from net-sell amounts (see Scope)
• layer: ADD_EVIDENCE (conference-day flow evidence)

F-020: On July 21, 2026 Taiwan stocks rose 1,783.17 points (versus the previous session) to 44,232.87 -- the second-largest intraday gain and the largest closing point gain on record -- breaking above the quarterly line at 43,709, with turnover easing to NT$835.624 billion; TSMC rose NT$90 to NT$2,410, back above its own quarterly line of NT$2,333; MediaTek closed limit-up, up NT$330 at NT$3,670; many passive-component, PCB-substrate and co-packaged-optics stocks hit limit-up

• source: CNA #1628181
• source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607210168.aspx
• confidence: high
• basis: news_aggregation
• period: 2026-07-21 (Taipei close)
• caveat: "largest closing point gain on record" is a point-based record; the July 21 single-day main record is this site's ANK-2026-07-22-003 (see Scope)
• layer: ADD_EVIDENCE + CONNECT (interlink with ANK-2026-07-22-003)

F-021: On July 23, 2026 the index swung 749.06 points (briefly topping the 45,000 mark at an intraday high of 45,089.82, with a low of 44,340.76) and closed up 25.03 points (versus the previous session) at 44,850.81, with turnover of NT$892.515 billion; TSMC closed at NT$2,405 (up NT$5 versus the previous session) with a market value of NT$62.36 trillion

• source: CNA #1658281
• source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607230141.aspx
• confidence: high
• basis: news_aggregation
• period: 2026-07-23 (Taipei close)
• caveat: single-day market data; the TSMC market value is per the 2026-07-23 report (see Scope)
• layer: ADD_EVIDENCE (daily evidence for the event chain)

F-022: On July 24, 2026 the three institutional groups net sold a combined NT$66.394 billion of Taiwan stocks: foreign and mainland Chinese investors net sold NT$60.951 billion, proprietary dealers net sold NT$11.151 billion, and investment trusts net bought NT$5.708 billion

• source: CNA #1673880
• source_url: https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607240181.aspx
• confidence: high
• basis: news_aggregation
• period: 2026-07-24 (Taipei close)
• caveat: single-day flow data as reported by CNA (see Scope)
• layer: ADD_EVIDENCE (flow evidence)

F-023: Cnyes report of July 24, 2026: per Ortex, since SpaceX listed at its US$135 IPO price short sellers' cumulative paper profit is US$15.5 billion, with about 360 million shares on loan, 56% of the float; the stock closed at US$118.25 on Thursday, July 23, 2026, more than 12% below the IPO price, and after spiking to US$225.64 intraday on its third trading day (June 16, 2026) it kept retreating to nearly half its peak; from August 6, 2026 the first insider unlock covers 911.5 million shares (the report gives a peak value of US$116 billion), and by early December 2026 the float is expected to grow from 639 million to 5.33 billion shares; a Reuters analysis says the market is betting SpaceX is overvalued (IPO valuation US$1.77 trillion, price-to-sales above 90)

• source: CNYES #1672834
• source_url: https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/6544686
• confidence: medium
• basis: news_aggregation
• period: Cnyes report of 2026-07-24; the share price is the U.S. Eastern 2026-07-23 close
• caveat: Ortex/Reuters figures are Cnyes relays, not verified by this site against primary data; the valuation is laid alongside the target card's "US$2 trillion" wording, and the unlock value alongside CNYES#1626901's "about US$109.2 billion" estimate, without adjudication (see Scope)
• layer: REVISE (follow-up readings on the target card's P-003 "SpaceX listing / fundraising wave")

J-Units

J-001: The structure of "good news and a record drop in the same frame" -- every item at TSMC's July 16 conference came in above the April wording (a 67.7% gross margin above the guidance range; the full-year target from "more than 30%" to "slightly above 40%"; capex from "near the upper end of US$52-56 billion" to "US$60-64 billion"; another US$100 billion for the U.S.), yet Taiwan stocks logged the largest closing point drop on record the next session -- subsequent reports pinned the fall on chips and liquidity (the Korean ETF deleveraging transmission; profit-taking after an overheated first half; the Q3 gross-margin guidance of 65%-67% short of the market's hoped-for 70%) rather than deteriorating fundamentals; this is this card's organization of facts and views carried across multiple reports, and every causal attribution belongs to the reports/interviewees, not to this card

• confidence: medium
• basis: news_aggregation

J-002: The volatility-regime juxtaposition -- the largest closing point drop on record (-2,953.71, July 17, 2026), the largest closing point gain on record (+1,783.17, July 21) and the ninth-largest point drop (-1,195.97, July 24) all occurred within six sessions (each is its report's stated record; this card juxtaposes existing records across reports, no new statistic); after the target card's institutional "box-range consolidation" expectation and its two monthly-line support readings (45,537 in the July 5 report / about 45,623 in the July 6 report), the July 24 report's wording was already "the monthly line at 45,301 as overhead resistance" and "breaking the quarterly line at about 43,964" -- "support turned into resistance" is an editorial juxtaposition of two dated report wordings; the moving average shifts over time and this card neither recalculates nor adjudicates

• confidence: medium
• basis: news_aggregation

J-003: Follow-up readings on the "money momentum" thesis -- against the analyst judgment recorded in the target card that "heavyweight listings and bond issues weigh on money momentum," the verifiable new readings are: SpaceX trading more than 12% below its IPO price and nearly halved from its peak, facing the unlock of more than 900 million shares from August 2026; the six AI hyperscalers' outstanding bonds approaching US$500 billion; the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield above 5% for 12 straight days, the longest since 2007 -- the reports do not link these directly to Taiwan-market flows, and this card lists them as follow-up facts of the same thesis without causal inference

• confidence: medium
• basis: news_aggregation

J-004: The sector map of electronics concentration -- in the week of the record point drop (measured at the 2026-07-17 close) the weighted index fell about 5.92% and market value fell NT$8.676361 trillion, yet the same report's "ex-electronics" index fell only 0.27% for the week, the "ex-financial-and-electronics" index rose 1.03%, and the oil, electricity and gas index rose 30.30% for the week -- the decline was heavily concentrated in heavyweight electronics; "concentrated" is this card's editorial juxtaposition of the index figures within CNA#1577403, not the source's own sentence, and together with this site's ANK-2026-07-18-004 (the prior week: ex-electronics down only 0.74%) it forms two consecutive same-methodology snapshots (a cross-card juxtaposition of existing records, not a new statistic)

• confidence: medium
• basis: news_aggregation

P-Units

P-001: The actual market reaction to SpaceX's first earnings on August 4, 2026, the first unlock (911.5 million shares) from August 6, and the rolling unlocks from late August through the float reaching 5.33 billion shares by early December -- to be tracked per the reported timetable (open)

P-002: Whether Taiwan stocks reclaim the quarterly and monthly lines (per the July 24, 2026 report: quarterly about 43,964, monthly 45,301) and whether the June 11 low of 42,006 holds (Li Fang-kuo's watch point); next week's U.S. earnings from Microsoft, Qualcomm, Arm, Meta, Apple, Amazon and others (Liu Cheng-yu's watch point) -- all are interviewees' watch axes, not this card's forecasts (open)

P-003: Whether the reported TSMC 2027 price hikes (Nikkei Asia, up to 10%, company declining comment) materialize; progress on the US$100 billion Arizona add-on and four fabs, and the 13 advanced fabs in Taiwan (open)

P-004: The target card's SpaceX five-tranche bond plan (at least US$25 billion) and Nvidia's US$25 billion corporate bond -- no individual completion reports appear in this card's sources (through July 24, 2026); tracking continues (open)

同事件・三視角 / Three Perspectives on the Same Event / 同一イベント・三つの視点

• 繁體中文
• 日本語
• English

Internal citation chain

Published ANK-Docs cited by this article (all visible, relevant, honest links):

• ANK-2026-07-06-004, "Chapter three of Taiwan's stock-market correction, 'box-range consolidation under tight liquidity': the SpaceX listing (market value above US$2 trillion) plus SpaceX's reported bond plan of at least US$25 billion and Nvidia's US$25 billion corporate-bond issue weigh on money momentum ... two figures for the monthly-moving-average support laid out side by side (45,537 in the July 5 report / about 45,623 in the July 6 report)" (published 2026-07-06) → the extension target of this card: its P-001 (conference terms), P-002 (box and monthly-line expectation) and P-003 (fundraising-wave follow-through) are each checked against subsequent reports here. Link: en
• ANK-2026-07-18-004, "Taiwan stocks fell 1,426.01 points for the week as listed market value shrank NT$4.6225 trillion from the prior week (measured at the 2026-07-09 close; CNA report of 2026-07-13; not verified with the TWSE by this site)" (published 2026-07-19) → CONNECT: the week-to-July-9 weekly report, forming two consecutive same-methodology snapshots with this card's F-009 week-to-July-17 report. Link: en
• ANK-2026-07-22-003, "Taiwan stocks rose 1,783.17 points on July 21, 2026, the largest closing point gain on record (per CNA reports)" (published 2026-07-23) → CONNECT: the main single-day record card for July 21; this card's F-011 cites it as a link in the event chain without re-minting. Link: en
• ANK-2026-07-22-004, "Taiwan stocks closed at 44,825.78 on July 22, 2026, up 592.91 points from the previous session (a 1.34% gain)" (published 2026-07-23) → CONNECT: the main single-day record card for July 22. Link: en
• ANK-2026-07-22-005, "Reuters analysis of Trump's financial disclosure ... TSMC itself announced the US$100 billion Arizona add-on, bringing total U.S. investment to US$265 billion (all media relays; original filings not verified by this site)" (published 2026-07-23) → CONNECT: the Reuters angle on TSMC's added U.S. investment; this card's F-004 records only the conference announcement itself. Link: en
• ANK-2026-07-03-002, "Taiwan stock flows' 'one-day reversal'" (published 2026-07-02) → CONTEXTUALIZE: chapter two of the correction chain (foreign flows). Link: en
• ANK-2026-07-02-001, "Taiwan's AI rally: 'a raging bull meets a gray rhino'" (published 2026-07-02) → CONTEXTUALIZE: chapter one of the correction chain (the warning side). Link: en

Sources

1. [CNA #1538882] CNA, "TSMC's Q2 gross margin beats guidance; record profit with EPS of NT$27.25," 2026-07-16. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607160156.aspx
2. [CNA #1539702] CNA, "TSMC raises its full-year U.S.-dollar revenue growth target a second time, seeing growth above 40%," 2026-07-16. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607160182.aspx
3. [CNA #1539339] CNA, "TSMC lifts this year's capital expenditure to US$60-64 billion," 2026-07-16. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607160178.aspx
4. [CNA #1539819] CNA, "TSMC adds US$100 billion of U.S. investment, with an estimated four more fabs," 2026-07-16. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607160187.aspx
5. [CNA #1538766] CNA, "Taiwan stocks slip 6.61 points to 45,624; TSMC up NT$30," 2026-07-16. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607160151.aspx
6. [CNA #1544283] CNA, "Foreign investors net sell NT$48.335 billion, trimming 52,646 units of Nanya Plastics, the most," 2026-07-16. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607160294.aspx
7. [CNA #1568415] CNA, "Taiwan stocks plunge 2,953 points to 42,671, below the quarterly line -- the largest intraday and closing point drop on record," 2026-07-17. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607170128.aspx
8. [CNA #1568400] CNA, "TSMC plunges NT$180, its largest point drop ever; market value falls below NT$60 trillion," 2026-07-17. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607170143.aspx
9. [CNA #1568822] CNA, "Foreign net selling of NT$189 billion sets a record; the three institutional groups dump NT$261.7 billion," 2026-07-17. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607170179.aspx
10. [CNA #1577403] CNA, "Taiwan stocks fall 2,683 points this week; listed market value shrinks more than NT$8 trillion," 2026-07-17. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607170307.aspx
11. [CNA #1600746] CNA, "Taiwan stocks crash below the quarterly line, facing a record foreign short-position test," 2026-07-19. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607190026.aspx
12. [CNA #1613772] CNA, "Taiwan stocks fall 221 points to 42,449; TSMC up NT$30, back above NT$2,300," 2026-07-20. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607200124.aspx
13. [CNA #1628181] CNA, "TSMC steadies the ranks; Taiwan stocks surge 1,783 points, back above the quarterly line," 2026-07-21. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607210168.aspx
14. [CNA #1643129] CNA, "Taiwan stocks rise 592 points, reclaiming the 10-day line; TSMC down NT$10, holding NT$2,400," 2026-07-22. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607220144.aspx
15. [CNA #1658281] CNA, "TSMC lifts the close with a NT$5 gain; Taiwan stocks swing 749 points and end up 25," 2026-07-23. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607230141.aspx
16. [CNA #1673741] CNA, "Taiwan stocks fall 1,195 points on shrinking volume, the ninth-largest point drop in history; the weekly line turns positive," 2026-07-24. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607240170.aspx
17. [CNA #1673880] CNA, "The three institutional groups net sell NT$66.394 billion of Taiwan stocks," 2026-07-24. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607240181.aspx
18. [CNA #1671325] CNA, "U.S. stocks fall as geopolitical conflict escalates; institutions see continued swings for Taiwan stocks," 2026-07-24. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607240026.aspx
19. [CNA #1631373] CNA, "Chip price hikes next year? TSMC: pricing is strategy-oriented, not opportunistic," 2026-07-21. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607210303.aspx
20. [CNA #1646747] CNA, "TSMC issues NT$18.5 billion of green bonds for green buildings and environmental spending," 2026-07-22. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/afe/202607220331.aspx
21. [CNYES #1626901] Cnyes, "The biggest test since listing: SpaceX's first earnings land August 4 as a hundred-billion-dollar unlock wave arrives," 2026-07-21. https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/6541222
22. [CNYES #1672834] Cnyes, "Shorts up US$15.5 billion and still adding: SpaceX nearly halved as a massive share unlock nears," 2026-07-24. https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/6544686
23. [CNYES #1661102] Cnyes, "Longest streak in 18 years: the 5% U.S. Treasury yield won't retreat as the AI bond wave adds pressure," 2026-07-23. https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/6543320

Anti-fabrication statement: This card carries zero verified official anchors (official_count_verified=0); every figure is as reported by CNA and Cnyes (including relays of TWSE statistics, TSMC conference statements and wire data) and has not been independently verified by this site. This card generates no number absent from the sources, computes no new ratio or total, and merges no cross-source figures into manufactured comparisons; the "chapter four" label and the editorial juxtapositions ("support turned into resistance," "decline concentrated in electronics") are each flagged in the Scope section. No Wikidata Q identifiers are attached (no registry verification; when in doubt, leave it out).